In a race that’s more evenly split than any in modern history, the victor of the 2024 presidential election in November is likely to be determined by voters in the country’s seven “swing states.”
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are widely expected to determine the outcome of the election, and each campaign is vying to lay claim to their 93 electoral votes — roughly a third of the total needed to reach 270 votes, the threshold that’s necessary to secure the White House.
These battlegrounds will be pivotal to enable either candidate – Vice President Kamala Harris, or former President Donald Trump – to gain the edge they need in the electoral college. It’s little wonder, therefore, why the respective champions for both the Republican and Democratic parties have poured hundreds of millions of campaign dollars into advertising in these states, in a bid to tip the balance.
The 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will likely be decided by the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Voters in each state have their own unique sets of issues, ranging from immigration to abortion rights to unionized work, and they have distinct profiles, with demographics varying from education to gender to age and ethnicity. Each of these attributes has become more important than ever in a race that’s come down to a pitched battle, state by state, county by county.
To understand the “why” behind voters’ thinking and reasoning, and to gain insights into how the battleground states might tip, the Hurricane’s reporters spoke to numerous swing-state residents. We sought to understand why, for those who support former President Trump, his appeal hasn’t eroded after criminal convictions and the January 6 riot at the Capitol, among other scandals.
And we wanted to understand the hurdles befalling Vice President Harris, the first Black female nominee for a major party ticket, who took over as her party’s nominee in July — later than any candidate in history — after President Joe Biden gave up his reelection bid.
Below, in their own words, Americans open up about their thoughts on the candidates and some of the main issues driving this election: abortion, immigration and the border, and the economy.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
By Sumner Bradly and Nikki Rozenfeld
Arizona, which was carried by Biden in 2020, has long titled toward Republican candidates.
But women in the state say the battle for the right to an abortion is what’s driving them to the polls.
“The absolute biggest issue for me by far is reproductive health, and healthcare in general,” said 66-year-old Linda Buchanan of Flagstaff. She’s an independent voter and is supporting Harris. She also fears for the safety and civility of the nation amid the tight race: “I’ve seen it become more commonplace to actually hear discussions about civil war,” she said. “It’s scary as heck out here.”
Cathy Perez, 48, of Phoenix, said she struggles to understand why so many voters have disconnected the issues of abortion and the economy. They’re inexorably linked, she said: “When people say, ‘Oh yes, economy,’ I’m like, ‘You don’t understand that, if half the population does not have bodily autonomy, your economy is going to tank.'”
The battle over legalization of abortions in Arizona is very much a central focus for voters this year, with Proposition 139 — the Arizona Abortion Access Act, which would cement the right to an abortion in the state constitution — on the ballot. There are strong indications the proposal will pass, with polls indicating widespread support for the amendment, though there are some groups in the state who have criticized and vowed to block it.
Taylor Guillot, 31, of Tempe, is one voter who wants to see the state adopt protections for legal access to abortions. “Women have the right to decide what they want to do with their body at any point during their pregnancy,” she said. “I do not feel that the government at the state level or the federal level should be determining what a woman does with her body.”
It’s also time, she said, for America to turn the page on a stretch of time that has felt divisive. “Trump,” she said, “is not a new direction.”
For voters like Carrie Vas, 53, a resident of Arcadia, the fear that a Trump presidency could fundamentally undercut the American democracy is unnerving. “Arizona is a microcosm of what’s going on in our country and also worldwide,” she said. “We are in a fight for — I want to say it’s freedom, but it’s mostly just anti-fascism.”
Abortion is another crucial issue that’s top of mind because it’s impacted her family directly: Two loved ones have undergone the procedure for life-threatening reasons, she said. One was her mother, who underwent an abortion in Europe. “I would not have my mom when I was little because she had a miscarriage — a terrible one,” she said.
For Vas, the issue is about preserving the right for the next generation of women, but she says it’s a battle that impacts everyone — not just future moms.
“I’m fighting for people who are younger,” she concluded. “I go after young men and I tell them, ‘Someday, your wife, your daughter, someone’s going to need this. This is your issue.'”
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
By Olivia Estoppey and Amanda Mohamad [redebak sent 10/22]
The Democrats flipped Georgia in 2020, the first time in almost three decades. The state, which is also the center of an election interference case involving former President Donald Trump, is crucial to the path to the White House this November. After Vice President Harris took over the Democratic ticket, she’s been heavily focusing on Georgia and its 16 electoral votes.
The key to victory in Georgia is understanding its demographics: Nearly a third (33.2%) of the population is Black or African-American and 11.1% is Hispanic, according to US News & World Report. These voting blocs were key to President Biden’s victory in 2020.
Four residents told the Hurricane why they have confidence in Trump, how the various criminal investigations into his conduct fuel supporters, why they are not supporting Harris, and how race is playing into their decision.
Robert Donaldson — also known as Aspiring Mogul – in 2015 made headlines for his rap song campaigning for former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson – has been a fan of Donald Trump his whole life. Growing up, Donaldson’s father purchased books written by Trump about his billionaire-dollar real-estate empire. “When I look at Donald Trump…none of his kids are crazy. If he’s that crazy, how in the world can you possibly produce kids? Money alone does not sustain success. I don’t really buy into the idea that he’s just this dumb, ridiculous fool, because parenting is difficult,” he said.
Donaldson, who was born in Germany and grew up as a military brat around the world, aligns with Trump’s worldview such as his “America First” platform, as well as his stances on the economy, immigration, national security, and judicial appointments.
64-year-old Marissa Hardwick, who resides in Smyrna, immigrated from the Philippines in 1986 to elope with her husband, Matthew, and political and personal values align significantly. A mother of three and a grandmother of five, she worries that her children and grandchildren will struggle to make ends meet in the “socialist economy” she fears could emerge under a Harris presidency.
Trump’s “economic policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, can stimulate growth…[and ]prioritizes American interests in trade and foreign policy…I see him as a strong leader who is unafraid to confront challenges and speak directly to the public,” she said.
As an immigrant, Hardwick acknowledged the initial strengths of President Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Act, which gave extra financial support to marginalized communities. However, she also saw it as a little empty, because “challenges like systemic racism and economic inequality persist[ed],” she said. “The effectiveness of these efforts often depends on implementation and the ability to translate policy into meaningful change… It’s a continuous process that requires both government commitment and community engagement.”
Valentina R., a 26-year-old from Atlanta, who asked to keep her last name anonymous, is active with Atlanta Young Republicans, particularly among the Hispanic community. “The Hispanic vote in the country, especially this year for this election, is huge,” she said.
For Valentina, the right to vote is a privilege. “My biggest thing will always be: You don’t know what you have until it’s taken away,” she said. [if we want to say she is an immigrant or a refugee, we have to say where she is from]
She also mentioned that she believed those who feel their vote doesn’t matter typically vote Democrat, which is one reason she feels she doesn’t align with that party.
She said Trump’s trials and criminal proceedings “don’t affect my support for the individual,” though she conceded she might have chosen a different Republican nominee. She feels the charges reflect bigger issues within the legal system and do not diminish her support for Trump or the GOP.
On the other side of the political aisle is Nathan Figueroa, a 36-year-old firefighter and EMT from Chatsworth. While he identifies with conservative values, Nathan is voting for Harris this November, largely because he disapproves of Trump’s legal troubles.
“Honestly, I think that it’s made people more polarized,” he said about Trump’s criminal charges. “If any one of us regular people would’ve done something like that, we’d all be in jail.”
Figueroa is confused by the continued support for Trump in the Republican party. “Everybody else is full send for the whole, ‘yeah, I’m voting for a felon.’ They got the shirts…They’ve embraced that branding of his,” he said, pointing to how Trump’s voters have rallied behind the controversy.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
By Kayla Butter and Sophia Prescott
In Michigan, which was carried by Biden in 2020, Republican voters we spoke to said they were energized to vote for Trump this time around and flip the state.
Jennifer Ross, 53, cited concerns about border safety as one of her top issues. But she said that what Trump stands for as a candidate — the idea that he could restore the American Dream — was what made him most alluring.
“He is the epitome of the American Dream,” said Ross, “even with everything that was stacked against him.”
“If you don’t like his personality, you should look to his policies and performance,” she said. “Don’t worry about his personality, because we can’t all like everybody, right?”
Lorenzo Sewell, a 43-year-old pastor, spoke at the Republican National Convention on behalf of Trump this year. As a leader in the local Black community, he says that the Democratic Party hasn’t served Black voters as they’ve promised.
“The Democratic Party has taken the Black vote for granted because they feel as if Black people are monolithic, and none of them are just going to vote Democrat because they’re Black,” he said. “That’s untrue.”
“The Biden-Harris administration has never come to our communities — specifically my community in the west side of Detroit — although they were invited,” he added.
Other voters say they can’t understand why the Biden administration has struggled to temper runaway inflation that has had a painful impact on residents of the state. Michael Rivard, 25, works at a real-estate development company, and he’s one such voter.
“It’s not difficult to combat inflation if you just handle it correctly,” he said. “Prices are going up and that’s tough for younger generations too.”
Rivard believes that a second Trump administration would be better suited to revitalizing the economy after it was hit badly by the coronavirus pandemic and never made a full rebound. But he’s not convinced that a Harris administration could do the same.
“This election is more crucial than the one prior,” he said. “The economy is at risk.”
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
By Maggie Loggins
Nevada is playing an increasingly important role in the 2024 election. Though it represents only six electoral votes, it’s always been deemed a swing state – roughly a third of likely voters identify as independent, according to the BBC. Biden won Nevada by a mere 33,500 votes in 2020, and the state has been blue since the 2008 election (it voted Republican in 2004 and 2000).
The state, which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation at 5.5% as of August, has been hit hard by high housing prices and inflation. Nevada has a more blue-collar workforce, with many residents working in tourism and hospitality in Las Vegas.
Voters like Madison Moore, 24, of Reno, and Anthony Yap, a 39-year-old Fijian immigrant and military veteran, are turning to Donald Trump because they like his push on economic stability and his stance on national security. Both point to the low inflation and steady economic growth during Trump’s first term, citing his tax cuts, deregulation, and trade policies. They also appreciate his focus on energy independence, which could benefit Nevada’s renewable energy capabilities.
Moore likes the idea of reducing dependence on foreign oil and energy, and wants to harness “the state’s potential in solar and geothermal energy, which would create local jobs, lower energy costs, and make the state more self-sufficient,” she said.
For Yap, who plans to retire from the military in 2025, securing borders and maintaining a robust national defense are top priorities, making Trump his choice, though he voted for Biden in 2020. “But the way things are going, I can’t trust from what I’ve seen, I can’t trust that the same administration, whether it’s Kamala/Walz, like they’ll be able to manage a war,” he said.
Moore shares similar concerns, particularly about inflation and the cost of living. She values Trump’s commitment to supporting small businesses and reducing taxes, which she believes are essential to help Nevada’s economy thrive.
However, they also acknowledge areas for improvement. While Anthony and Madison both trust Trump’s ability to handle economic and defense issues, they hope for more diplomacy and unity in his second term.
“His policies work, but his messaging sometimes alienates people. If he could approach things with a bit more diplomacy, it might help move the country forward,” Moore said.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
By Alexandra Dominguez and Elle Haymond
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020. The Tar Heel state has steadily voted Republican for decades, except for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.
However, the margins between Democratic and Republican candidates have been smaller in recent elections, particularly as the state’s demographics have changed. Between 2010 and 2022, the share of the state’s population that identifies as Hispanic/Latino grew the most, increasing 2.1 percentage points to 10.5%. The white (non-Hispanic) population had the largest decrease dropping 3.8 percentage points to 61.5%. More out-of-staters have relocated to North Carolina too: domestic net migration accounted for 70% of the state’s total population growth between 2022 and 2023.
Geoffrey N. Caiquias, a 37-year-old resident of Raeford, Hoke County, who is a veteran and former teacher, plans to vote for Harris because he never supported the Republican Party. He cited the “continued rapid attacks on people of color as well as hate speech, I couldn’t vote Republican,” he said. He added that it seems to him that the GOP “historically voted to support tax cuts for the rich while cutting benefits for the middle class.”
Thom Delby, 54, of Delby County, is of a similar mindset.
“The last time I voted for a Republican Presidential candidate was George Bush, Jr. in 2000. I’ve voted straight Democrat since that time,” he said, and he’s “incredibly motivated to vote for candidates and policies that protect [women’s] right to choose, their right to open access to birth control, and their right to obtain a fair and balanced education.”
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
By Kayla Singer and Sonnet Jacobs
Trump swept the Keystone state in 2016, but President Joe Biden flipped the state in 2020. It’s the state with the most electoral votes up for grabs, and most political analysts believe the path to victory depends on winning Pennsylvania.
Four registered Democrats told the Hurricane that three major factors influencing their decision to vote for Kamala Harris are threats to democracy, immigration policies and the economy. These voters recalled Jan. 6, 2021, when the usual ratification of the election was halted due to an insurrection at the Capitol. Trump is facing a trial for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election.
“I think Trump’s rhetoric has extremely dangerous repercussions for democracy,” said Elaina Symes, a 22-year-old Philadelphia Clinical Research Coordinator. “Unfortunately, his word carries a lot of weight with his supporters, more than he realizes. The insinuation that he will remain president for the rest of his life if he wins goes against the democratic principles this country was founded on.”
Zandra Kennedy, 72, said, “Trump is not interested in the democracy of our founding fathers. He views himself as omnipotent and admires a dictatorial form of governing.”
Even though Pennsylvania is over 2,000 miles away from the Mexican border, voters still have strong opinions on immigration, particularly around those immigrating from Mexico, Central America and South America.
“I think Harris is qualified to handle the situation at the border. I think many conservatives blow the situation out of proportion and view anyone who crosses the border legally or for asylum-seeking as ‘illegal,’” Symes said.
To be sure, Pennsylvania’s demographics are key: about 26% of the state’s population lives in rural areas, which make up 75% of the land, while roughly 78% of the population lives in urban areas. In these urban areas, residents like Karen Campbell, a 49-year-old stay-at-home-mother who lives in State College, are broadly more progressive. “I live in a more progressive community with like-minded people. There are certainly more and more conversations about how to feel about the election,” she said.
The economy is a top concern for voters everywhere, and Pennsylvania is no different. Many are worried about rising costs, particularly for essentials like gasoline. Sebastian Rhoades, an
18-year-old high school student in State College, said: “Gas prices are super high and the cost of living is extremely hard to keep up with.”
Voters told the Hurricane they were unsure which leader could best navigate the economy. “Yes, I am concerned that inflation will rise more if Kamala becomes president,” Rhoades said, but he also believes “the economy under Harris will do better than an economy under Trump.”
The shadows of the COVID-19 pandemic still loom in some voters’ heads, too.
“I am hopeful that things will continue to improve with interest rates trending downward. I don’t think the President is solely responsible for the economy. I believe we are still in recovery mode from the effects of Covid,” Rhoades said.
Symes agreed, pointing to Congress. “I think much of the economy depends on the makeup of Congress – more than who is president,” she said.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
By Emma Kessler
Bernice Haffeman fears what could happen if Vice President Harris wins and former President Trump loses — that the border could become less secure.
“I am afraid our border is being completely invaded,” the 88-year-old self-professed Trump voter, who lives in the city of DePere, Wisconsin, told the Hurricane. “We’re seeing signs of illegals and crimes we did not have before,” she added.
For voters like Haffeman, the prospect of a second Trump term promises a return to a stronger economy and a country they recognize more than the one they live in today. “I’ve had a few people say that they are ashamed they voted for Biden, and they are going to vote for Trump. Things were so much better,” said 76-year-old Ann Lohrmann, who lives in Elkhart.
President Biden won in Wisconsin by a slim margin — less than 1% — in 2020. This time, Republican voters in Wisconsin that the Hurricane spoke to said they regretted that Trump lost last time, and are committed to helping him return to power.
They added that they see far more Trump signs throughout the state than they see for Harris, but conceded that might be because they’re in rural areas which have conventionally tipped red.
It’s not just older voters like Haffeman and Lohrmann who are energized about casting their ballots for Trump this year. Even millennials in the state, Trump said, would benefit Wisconsins on the economy far more than Harris can.
“My dad has a small business that has been struggling for the past couple years,” said Jenny Yingling, 37, who lives in the city of Delafield. “I hope the economy turns around if Trump is elected.”
“We think and know that the economy was much better off under his term than it has been recently,” she added.
While there were other issues that voters said mattered to them, interviews revealed that the state of the economy is motivating the Wisconsins we spoke to the most. But, Trump supporters in the state said they also felt strongly about border safety and election fraud.
But Haffeman seemed to sum up the concerns of Trump voters in the state by expressing how hard it’s become to afford the daily cost of living.
“I didn’t have to think twice about going to the grocery store [under the Trump administration],” she said. She says that inflation has made the day-to-day onerous since then, and she’s made sacrifices.
“I have to watch what I buy,” she said. “I can’t go out to eat anymore like I used to.”
