Last year to open the season, Miami took down the Fighting Irish 27-24 to propel them in early AP polls to No. 5 in the country, while Notre Dame fell to nine.
This year, Miami remains the underdog by nearly a touchdown despite their status as the No. 1 team in the country.
Their week one matchup last season carried an immense weight on both teams’ seasons, with the Canes trajectory for the College Football Playoff influenced by their toppling of the midwestern football giant. With that in mind, fans are placing a much larger emphasis on this year’s matchup for good reason.
Miami travels to South Bend, Ind. for the 29th iteration of the “Catholics vs. Convicts” rivalry this Saturday. With their matchup this time around coming much later in the season, the result will hold more weight with the CFP voters.
Miami Win/Notre Dame Loss
In the event that Miami goes back-to-back and continues their undefeated season, they are an immediate shoe-in for the playoffs. ND carries a heavy weight on their schedule as the only ranked opponent on the season, and a win would not only maintain Miami’s ranking, but show a capability of competing against a formidable program.
Additionally, a win gives Miami grace in the event of an upset loss for its remaining ACC schedule.
The final three weeks of the regular season sees the Canes face off against three conference opponents – Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. Were Miami to take over South Bend this Saturday, a loss to any of those teams would have lesser repercussions.
Notre Dame, aside from their 28-24 loss against now No. 9 BYU, has a similar fight against a weak schedule. The difference rests in the first CFP Committee Rankings, which were released on Nov. 3. The Irish face an uphill battle at No. 11, where Miami sits comfortably in first.
If ND leaves week ten as a two loss team, their schedule does not permit much of a climb back into playoff positioning.
So, while Miami’s at-large bid is confirmed at a minimum, with an automatic top-four bye in the cards, Notre Dame would be on the outside looking in.
Notre Dame Win/Miami Loss
A win at home, like Miami, all but confirms ND’s at-large bid into the playoffs. Taking down the nation’s current best would send them up the rankings and put them right in the thick of the CFP rankings.
The Canes aren’t on as thin of ice as the Irish in the juxtaposing scenario. But a subsequent in-conference could jeopardize their placement in the CFP as a two-loss team.
Miami would likely need to win the ACC Championship to ensure its placement, no easy feat considering the Canes have never won the title in 22 years.
Despite a top four bye still for the taking, the Canes face an uncertain path following a loss – as the Irish can breath in the 5-12 seed range.
With Malachi Toney’s injury and Notre Dame’s homefield advantage, it is increasingly more possible that the latter prediction comes to fruition.
While neither team’s loss is a guaranteed death sentence, there’s more on the line than bragging rights this time around.
A win gives either team a favorable stance in the eyes of the committee, and likely secures a desirable position in the postseason.