Technician Sports Editor Connor VanDerMark previews NC State football before its Saturday matchup against Miami.
After weeks of uncertainty — four losses in five games — and doubt about the season, NC State football has seemed to right the ship after pulling off one of the largest upsets in program history against previously undefeated then-No. 8 Georgia Tech.
From early on in the season, many analysts and fans have had the Wolfpack’s (5-4, 2-3 ACC) matchup against Miami (7-2, 3-2 ACC) marked as a loss, due in large part to questionable play from the red-and-white, an away matchup at Hard Rock Stadium and Miami’s projections as one of the top teams in college football. But over the last month, it’s become clear that NC State might have more of a chance than anticipated.
Despite its lofty expectations, Miami has dropped two of its last four matchups, falling at home to Louisville and faltering at SMU in an overtime loss. In those losses, transfer quarterback Carson Beck has thrown for just two touchdowns and six interceptions, falling short of his hopes at the Heisman Trophy.
Even still, the Hurricanes have averaged nearly 33 points per game and face a Wolfpack defense that allows nearly 31 points and 425 yards of offense per game. For NC State to come out on top, it will have to score on nearly every possession, similar to its performance against Georgia Tech.
NC State X-Factor of the Week:
Quarterback CJ Bailey
If last game proved anything, it’s that sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey is everything he was advertised to be and more. Facing the highest-ranked opponent of his young collegiate career without his two biggest offensive playmakers — senior tight end Justin Joly and redshirt sophomore running back Hollywood Smothers — Bailey put on his best performance yet, completing 75 percent of his passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for an additional 34 yards and another touchdown.
With Joly and Smothers questionable again, it will be crucial for Bailey to remain calm under pressure in a hostile environment and keep the offense moving down the field. With the way the NC State defense has performed this season, the offense has little room for error and can rarely afford to punt, especially against an ACC-leading Miami defense that allows just 15 points per game.
But its bigger than just being the quarterback. Bailey is a Florida native, and was heavily pursued by Miami during his recruitment before his eventual commitment to the Wolfpack. Returning to the school that vied so hard for him, it’s imperative that Bailey block out the outside noise and focus on the field rather than the drama.
NC State keys to the game:
Get stops early
Miami has proven time and again that once it gets going early, it’s hard, if not impossible, to stop it. But throughout their struggles over the last four weeks, the Hurricanes have scored just 14 total points in the first quarter. If the defense can keep Beck under pressure, the Georgia transfer has shown that he will eventually break.
Establish the run, but don’t rely on it
If Smothers is unavailable, freshman Duke Scott will start for the second straight week, coming off a 196-yard performance. Scott averaged over eight yards per carry, albeit against one of the worst rushing defenses in the ACC. The Wolfpack has shown that it can win with its ground game.
But even with the recent success, NC State can’t force the run. If it isn’t working, put the ball in the hands of Bailey and let him work. Miami allows the second-least rushing yards per game in the ACC and has all the talent needed to keep the red-and-white behind the line of scrimmage, so give your talented quarterback the opportunity to shine.
NC State vs. Miami: A Quick History
- NC State is 6-11-1 all-time against Miami, with an away record of 4-6-1.
- The Wolfpack won the most recent matchup 20-6 in a home game on Nov. 4, 2023, but lost the previous four games before that.
- The average margin of victory in the matchup is 11 points.
- These teams are no stranger to odd final scores, with a 0-0 tie in 1957 and a 2-0 Wolfpack win in 1942.
