On Tuesday, April 1, Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional districts will vote to replace the US House seats of Republicans Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, respectively. Though both are GOP stronghold districts, polling and strong democratic fundraising has indicated that the races will be more competitive than they were in November.
Republicans currently have a razor-thin majority in the House. They hold 218 seats, the minimum required for a majority vote in a fully-seated chamber. That is, if a bill is decided squarely on party lines, and one Republican Congressperson is ill or otherwise absent while all Democrats are present, that bill will fail.
If both Republicans win in Florida, as expected, House Republicans will hold 220 seats and gain a slight margin for error.
In CD-6, Democrat Josh Weil had brought in $10 million in grassroots support as of mid-march, while Trump-backed Republican Randy Fine had brought in less than $1 million. Weil is a public school teacher running on expanding health care and education access, while Fine is a State senator (R-Melbourne Beach) committed to expanding second-amendment rights and furthering Trump’s agenda. The district includes the stretch of coast between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats nearly two-to-one.
A poll by StPete Polls last week suggests the race is within the margin of error, even though Trump won the district by more than 30 points in 2024.
The special election will fill a vacancy left by Mike Waltz, Trump’s National Security Advisor, who is currently embroiled in the Signal group chat scandal in which highly-classified US intelligence was leaked to the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic.
With advisors reportedly worried about polling results, Trump held a tele-rally for Fine last week in an effort to mobilize conservative voters. “Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office. He will be there whenever I need him, and he wants to be there whenever we need him. He wants to be there for you,” Trump said.
CD-1 is an extremely conservative district in the Florida panhandle, where Tuesday’s special election is expected to be less competitive. Florida’s chief financial officer and Trump-endorsed Republican Jimmy Patronis will seek to fill Gaetz’s former seat. He is up against Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun control activist who ran against Gaetz in November and won only 34% of the vote. Gaetz resigned from Congress upon his nomination to be Trump’s attorney general, but later withdrew from consideration for AG due to compelling allegations of sexual assault against him.
Last week, Trump rescinded Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination to serve as his United Nations ambassador because of the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. “I said, ‘Elise, would you do me a favor? We cannot take a chance. We have a slim margin,’” Trump told reporters.
Democrats believe that this reversal is a “clear admission” that the GOP is concerned about the upcoming special elections, said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in an interview with MSNBC on Sunday. “These are seats in very red districts, seats that should not be on the radar for Democrats, but are because what Republicans are doing to the economy is devastating.
“In these two districts, 300,000 people are on Medicaid… [Republicans] want to cut billions of dollars in funding for Medicaid to make room for tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires,” Wasserman Schultz said, arguing that Trump’s policies have already caused a leftward swing amongst voters.
Though both parties acknowledge that the GOP will more than likely regain the two House seats, these races could also offer a glimmer of hope to Democrats if their candidates overperform. A slimmer margin of victory for Republicans could signal dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies and indicate a resurgence in Democratic fortunes. Meanwhile, the GOP is eager to secure both seats, largely unconcerned with its projected margins, to bolster its majority in the House.