Miami-Dade county, which typically swings in favor of the Democrats, has started to trend more towards the Republican Party. According to the county’s election supervisor, Democrats hold a narrow lead of only 45,399 registered voters over Republicans. This is a stark contrast to four years ago, when Democrats had 200,939 more registered voters than the Republican party.
In 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio both won re-election and flipped Miami-Dade county. Both men won the county by 12% and 9% respectively, a major margin for any Republican.
In the case of the governor’s race, it was the first time since 1998 that Miami-Dade county voted for a Republican. Even more surprising, Desantis’ margin of victory in the county rivaled 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Andrew Gillums’ margin of victory in that race.
A dissatisfaction with the current administration is to blame for the shift. The Biden-Harris administration’s poor response to the issues of immigration and the economy, and overall push of identity politics has left voters with a bitter taste in their mouth.
Starting with the economy, inflation was at 8.3% in 2022, the second year of the Biden administration. This was nearly a five point rise compared to 3.2% during the decade before and important to note because, as mentioned earlier, DeSantis and Rubio flipped Miami-Dade County that year. This flip seems to be a reflection of voter sentiment, as voters blame high costs on Biden and the Democrats.
Biden has also been polling worse on the economy among registered voters than Former President Donald Trump. Miami-Dade residents had these concerns at the top of their minds earlier this year when they switched their party preference ahead of the GOP primaries.
Another reason for this party-flip is what some have dubbed the “culture war”. Essentially, this “war” is in part due to race, gender, sexual orientation and overall identity politics taking center stage in the modern political landscape.
The state’s overall political views have shifted, with the GOP holding the governor’s mansion, the state legislature and most of their congressional representation. Biden won Miami-Dade by 7.3% in 2020 against Trump. However, this is a significantly smaller margin of victory compared to 2016 where Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton won by 29.6% against Trump.
Some county voters are starting to view the Democratic party with disdain, and Hispanic populations, which make up a large chunk of Miami, view Democrats as socialists. This is prominent in communities like Cuban voters, who come from socialist countries and fear Democrats might propose similar policies.
“Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a guaranteed win as our community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies ruining our nation.” Said Republican County Commissioner Kevin Marino regarding voter sentiment.
Despite this, an argument can be made that this is only temporary. After all, the national popular vote continues to trend Democratic, as Democrats won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.
It is also important to note that Miami-Dade county’s mayor is still a Democrat, Daniella Levine-Cava. Levine-Cava won reelection this Aug. with almost 60% of the vote against six opponents. Voter turnout was low, with only 19% of eligible voters coming out to cast ballots compared to 28% in 2020.
Another argument for this surge in Miami-Dade’s Republican support is that registered Democrats are leaving the state as a response to laws like the Parental-Rights in Education act, which has been viewed as anti-LGBTQ.
Furthermore, The Miami Herald reported that roughly 600,000 people have moved to the Sunshine State over the past decade, citing that many conservatives from across the country have moved to Florida because it has become a beacon of conservative values.
Voter shifts are not just a blip; rather, they reflect beliefs and concerns people have about their political parties and society as a whole. As the election draws near, the GOP’s ability to maintain their growth and momentum in Miami-Dade will depend on how they continue to defend their record on key issues like the economy and immigration. However, it looks like this trend is continuing onward, and it will be interesting to see if Democrats can regain their footing in a county that was once in their grasp.