On Sept. 2, Iowa senator Joni Ernst announced that she would not be seeking a third term in the US Senate, becoming the fourth republican not to seek reelection. With Ernst’s decision, Republicans are now left with four seats to fill to keep their 53 seat majority.
This begs the question:Who can the GOP turn to for such a daunting task?
Aside from Ernst, Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Thomas Tillis of North Carolina are set to retire at the end of their terms in 2027, while Tommy Tubberville of Alabama is seeking the governorship of his home state.
In Iowa’s case, right behind Ernst’s announcement came Trump ally Congresswoman Ashley Hinson who entered the race to succeed her. While Ernst holds a very conservative voting record, Hinson is arguably more in line with the America first agenda,voting in favor of the big beautiful bill alongside the rest of the Iowa’s house delegation and defending the president’s decision to not meet with Democrats amid the shutdown. She was reelected to her house seat by 57% of the vote and bolstered a strong fundraising network. This Iowa opening underscores the urgency of recruiting viable GOP replacements — an issue mirrored in North Carolina.
North Carolina is where Republicans must come to bat. Former Governor Roy Cooper has already declared his candidacy for the senate. Cooper is a popular former Governor who was elected in 2016 and 2020, two years in which Trump was running for president. Despite North Carolina voting for Trump three times, Cooper was able to win the Governorship with narrow margins in 2016 and 2020. But Democrats won all three major statewide offices in 2024, with better margins. Governor Josh Stein won with 14-points over his controversial opponent Lt. Governor Mark Robinson.
Currently Republicans, including Trump himself, are backing former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley for North Carolina senator. Some tried to recruitLaura Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, to run for both this seat and the seat left open by Marco Rubio in Florida when he became secretary of state. Like Iowa, North Carolina highlights how quickly a “safe” seat can shift under well-funded, high-profile campaigns — raising the stakes for Republicans.
While Alabama and Kentucky are less of a risk for the GOP, the former is important to look at. Democrats were able to flip the seat in a special election in 2017, when Doug Jones won in a narrow race against Roy Moore, a republican candidate with a basket of issues including sexual allegations.
So it is possible to flip a southern seat as seen here and in Georgia with Jon Ossoff, who defeated incumbent senator David Perdue in a 2020 runoff and is up for reelection in the peach state this year.
Many of the seats Democrats must flip are in the South, which are historically conservative and fairly resilient to Democratic advances. This gives Republicans an inherent structural advantage. Strengthening this is the appeal of Trump-aligned messaging in these states.
Republicans face a true test next year, with four seats completely up for grabs and strong opponents, their majority is at risk. But strong candidates like Ashley Hinson and Michael Whatley—aligned with Trump’s base—and the South’s conservative tilt create real defensive opportunities.
Republicans, donors and activists must double down now—invest in messaging, candidate support and voter outreach to protect the Senate. The future of Trump’s agenda—and the conservative movement— could depend on defending these battlegrounds.