The Miami Hurricanes are hanging on by a thread. As Championship Saturday approaches, Miami doesn’t control its own destiny, and can’t play any games to prove to a group of 12 committee members that it belongs in the College Football Playoff.
Despite sitting at home in Coral Gables, steam has picked up on the Hurricanes, and their odds of making the playoff has increased significantly. Media members across the country are starting to put pressure on CFP Committee chairman Hunter Yurachek and the rest of the committee to give the ’Canes the last spot.
The door for the UM isn’t wide open. But it’s cracked – and Miami has every reason to believe that it can squeeze through.
A playoff-caliber résumé
The process to make the CFP is dependent on a number of factors, including head to head, strength of schedule, common opponents, and the subjective “eye test” that grades a team best on how they play on the field.
When looking at the remaining at-large teams between BYU, Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas, the Hurricanes have a legitimate case to take that final spot.
BYU is 11-1 and the committee has done no favors in telling the Cougars that a loss in the Big 12 Championship essentially eliminates them from the playoff.
However, BYU had an extremely weak out-of-conference schedule, with wins over Portland State, Stanford, and East Carolina. Miami and BYU have one common opponent, a Stanford team that the Hurricanes beat by a wider margin (42-7).
The Cougars best win is No. 15 Utah and their only loss is to No. 4 Texas Tech, where they lost 29-7. BYU likely has the best résumé out of the bunch but a loss on Saturday in a rematch against the Red Raiders will likely put the team from Provo out of contention.
The biggest discrepancy that has caused national attention all the way up to the highest level of American politics is the debate between No. 12 Miami and No. 10 Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish have won 10 straight games after starting the season 0-2 and have a defense that has turned a corner and an offense led by strong quarterback play and the best running back in the country.
The two programs have very similar résumés too. Notre Dame leads Miami in the strength of schedule metric, although the margins are so tiny that it’s impossible to tell who gets an edge. According to ESPN, ND has an SOR of 13 and SOS of 42, while Miami has an SOR of 14 and SOS of 44.
The Irish and the Hurricanes hold four common opponents with each other; Syracuse, Stanford, NC State, and Pittsburgh, in which both teams went 4-0 in those games.
However, Miami beat those opponents by a wider margin than Notre Dame in three of the four games. ND’s 70-7 onslaught of Syracuse is the only common opponent that the Irish have an advantage over.
The Irish’s best win this season is No. 16 USC and is 2-2 against teams when they were ranked. Miami’s best win is a 27-24 victory over No. 9 Notre Dame on Week 1 in a game the Hurricanes never trailed. Against teams when they were ranked, Miami went 4-0, with wins over ND, South Florida, Florida State, and Pitt.
Miami’s only blemish is that Notre Dame’s “quality losses” are stronger than the Hurricanes. The ’Canes dropped two out of three games between late October and early November against 8-4 Louisville and 8-4 SMU, games that UM lost by a combined nine points.
While the losses hold weight, Louisville and SMU are quality conference opponents that at one point were ranked. If SMU beat California to end the season, the Mustangs would have been the ACC favorite to win the conference.
When résumés are extremely similar and nearly all stats are the same, the factor of head to head has to matter. The game on the field has to matter.
Just because a game was played in late August should not penalize the team that won. Miami won and Notre Dame ends up getting more credit for its loss than Miami does for its win.
Miami’s win over Notre Dame ultimately should end the discussion. However, the Irish are the favorite to get the last spot in the CFP and not Miami.
Media members and Hurricane fans aren’t the only ones confused and annoyed by the committee’s lack of love for Miami and favor towards Notre Dame.
“If the University of Miami gets screwed out of the College Football Playoff after going 10-2 and beating Notre Dame, the whole thing should be scrapped and [President Trump] is gonna have to take over next year,” United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday.
Peaking at the right time
When the Hurricanes suffered their second loss of the season on an overtime loss to SMU, Yurachek told ESPN’s Rece Davis that Miami needs to show consistency if it wants to make the 12-team playoff.
Most people wrote of Miami and the ‘same old ’Canes’ mantra came back to haunt Mario Cristobal and UM. But the Hurricanes fought back, and played their best brand of football since the beginning of the season.
In the four games that followed against Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes played dominant football, outscoring their opponents 151-41, winning by at least three scores in each of those games.
Since SMU, the offense has totally transformed, with freshmen stepping up at the skill positions. 18-year old receiver Malachi Toney broke Ahmmon Richards 2016 record for the most receiving yards by a true freshman with 970 yards. He’s a Freshman All-American that can run, pass, and catch at an elite level and has played an integral role in the Miami offense.
Stepping up for midseason injuries to CJ Daniels and Mark Fletcher Jr., running back Girard Pringle Jr. and receivers Joshua Moore and Daylyn Upshaw have made their presenceses felt.
In his last four games, Pringle has put the rest of the ACC on notice, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and making explosive plays in the process.
After struggling in the middle of the season against Louisville and SMU, sixth-year redshirt senior Carson Beck is playing his best football since his 2023 campaign at Georgia.
In the last four games, Beck has completed nearly 80% of his throws, totaling 1,125 yards for 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Since suffering a torn UCL nearly a year ago in the SEC Championship game, Beck is back to 100% and has shown it.
Miami’s defense, a unit that was one of the worst in all of college football in 2024, is among the best in the country this season. Led by first-year defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, and defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor, the UM defense is one of the most feared units in the country.
In an article from The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman, an anonymous ACC head coach praised Miami’s elite defensive line.
“ND’s [Notre Dame] D-line is good, but it’s not Miami,” the coach said. “Their D-line is ridiculous. And that’s why Miami beat them. The trenches are where it all starts.”
The Hurricanes defense is sixth in points allowed per game, seventh in rushing yards allowed per game, and 11th in the country in total yards allowed per game, at 13.8, 86.8, and 277.8, respectively.
As hall of fame head coach Nick Saban said “They’re [Miami] going to be the most dangerous team anybody has to play because of the talent level they have.”
Miami’s path
Although the path is unlikely, it’s still possible for Miami to sneak into the CFP. The best possible scenario for Hurricanes involves three conference championship games that puts the pressure on Yurachek and the committee to let the ’Canes in.
The only game that eliminates Miami from playoff contention is the Big 12 championship game between BYU and Texas Tech. If Miami wants to inch closer to Notre Dame and make the committee look at the head to head intensely, BYU must lose convincingly.
In the SEC Championship game, an Alabama win ultimately might be best for ’Canes. If the Crimson Tide win and BYU loses, the top nine is solidified and sets the best case scenario for Miami.
The Hurricanes would move up to No. 11 and Notre Dame would stay at 10. In the eyes of most, the head to head should ultimately be the deciding factor and be enough to push Miami over the edge.
If the Irish remain at 10, it could set up a dangerous precedent going forward for the committee. Teams may stop scheduling tougher out-of-conference games and will elect to stop playing Independent teams like Notre Dame.
The last game, the ACC Championship, could also cause chaos and favor Miami. If 7-5 Duke wins the conference over Virginia, both Group of Five teams of Tulane and JMU will get the nod over the Blue Devils, opening a world where there are no ACC teams represented in the playoff.
The committee could have a hard time imagining a 12-team playoff without a Power Four conference and could add the highest ranked ACC team, Miami, into the playoff over Notre Dame and BYU.
Ultimately, Miami’s fate will be decided by 12 men consisting of athletic directors, former coaches, players, and journalists that will confer in a hotel conference room on Sunday morning.
But, Miami has done all it could in the last month to prove its case to make the CFP and that still may not be enough. It would spell back-to-back seasons of 10 win seasons that end just short of making the bracket.
The College Football Playoff Show will air at Noon on Sunday, Dec. 7, on ABC.
