If the college football regular season ended today, the Miami Hurricanes would be on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in. Luckily for them, there’s one weekend left and they still have a chance of sliding in despite not playing.
The odds aren’t in their favor, with ESPN Analytics currently giving the ‘Canes a 10% chance to make the playoff, but there’s still a path. Here’s what Miami and its fans should be rooting for to give the team the best possible chance at clinching their first ever CFP berth.
No. 4 Texas Tech beats No. 11 BYU (in convincing fashion)
Even though the Hurricanes were ranked No.12 in the latest CFP rankings, they still are not in the playoff because the No. 11 and 12 spots will go to the two lowest ranked conference winners. Therefore, they need to be in the top 10.
The first team they need to pass is No. 11 BYU. The Cougars are currently sitting at 11-1, but their only ranked win is against No. 23 Utah (now ranked No. 15). The Hurricanes on the other hand have four ranked wins against teams at the time of playing the game, with wins over No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 18 South Florida, No. 18 Florida State, and No. 22 Pittsburgh. In the current CFP ranking, the Fighting Irish are the only team still ranked, sitting at No. 9 in the nation.
BYU enters Saturday’s game as 12.5 point underdogs in the Big 12 Championship against No. 4 Texas Tech. A win from the Cougars would likely knock both Miami and Notre Dame out of the playoff, so a Red Raiders win is a necessity.
If BYU loses Saturday, the committee is likely to put the Hurricanes above the Cougars. This may not stand if BYU keeps it extremely close, but even then, the Hurricanes could slide ahead thanks to their stronger out-of-conference schedule and better wins.
In the event that Miami passes BYU, UM will be ranked one spot behind 10-2 Notre Dame. At that point, it will be difficult for the college football playoff committee to ignore the head-to-head game between UM and ND on Aug. 31 and could be enough for Miami to jump to the No. 10 spot. This scenario is likely the only avenue for the ‘Canes to make the playoff and even if it happens, may not be enough.
The Big 12 Championship game at AT&T Stadium Dallas, Texas is slated for a Noon kickoff and will air on ABC.
No. 9 Alabama beat No. 3 Georgia
On Tuesday, the committee moved Alabama to the No. 9 spot over Notre Dame, all but solidifying the Crimson Tide’s chances of making the playoff unless something cataclysmic were to happen.
While a loss to Georgia on Saturday would put Alabama at three losses, don’t expect the committee to take the Crimson Tide out of the playoff. Instead, Alabama could drop to No. 10 and be the “buffer” between Miami and Notre Dame. Having Notre Dame at nine, Alabama at 10, and Miami at 11 will give the committee reason to not factor in the ‘Canes head-to-head victory over ND and keep UM out of the playoff.
But, if Alabama wins on Saturday, the top nine in the bracket is solidified, leaving one final spot for an at-large bid in the playoff. In the event a BYU loses and Alabama wins, that final spot will go to Miami or Notre Dame, which keeps Miami’s dream scenario alive.
However, in the event that Alabama were to lose by a significant margin to the Bulldogs, there is a world that the committee knocks out the Crimson Tide entirely and puts in both Notre Dame and Miami, but Hurricane fans shouldn’t rely on that happening.
The SEC Championship game at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. is set for 4 p.m. and will air on ABC.
Duke beats Virginia in the ACC Championship
This is where it starts to get a little weird — If former Miami head coach Manny Diaz can lead his Blue Devils to a win this weekend, the ACC champion would be a 7–5 team outside the CFP top 25.
In the event that James Madison beats Troy on Friday night and Duke wins on Saturday night, the ACC will be without a playoff representative and could force the committee to consider Miami, the highest-ranked ACC team, as the league’s best option.
The ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. is set for 8 p.m. and will air on ABC.
It’s a long shot, but if chaos reigns this weekend, Miami could sneak into the CFP for the first time in program history. The final bracket will be released at Noon on Sunday, Dec. 7, when the College Football Playoff Show airs on ABC and the Hurricanes fate will be decided.
