After a heart-wrenching overtime defeat to SMU on Nov. 1, it felt as if Miami’s dreams of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff were shattered.
The Hurricanes had been at the mountaintop of the sport for the first seven weeks of the season, going undefeated in that span whilst being hailed as a national championship contender. But in just 15 days, everything unraveled for UM, as it went on to suffer two losses in three weeks to Louisville and SMU – a stretch that appeared to all but kill its chances of reaching the postseason.
But against all odds, Miami’s playoff hopes are seemingly still alive, albeit hanging on by a thread.
Thanks to a late-season resurgence and some much needed help from losses elsewhere in college football, the door remains cracked open for the Hurricanes if they can continue to dominate opponents in the same fashion as last Saturday and get lucky with favorable results in games out of their control.
As of this instant, there are two possible ways in which the ‘Canes can earn a spot in the 12-team bracket. They either need to win the ACC title, securing them an automatic bid into the Playoff as the conference champions, or, they can receive entry via an at-large bid. To get selected as an at-large spot, it involves a scenario in which the playoff voting committee decides if they are one of the best teams in the country based off of their regular season résumé and therefore worthy of making it in.
Right now, both paths are stacked against UM. Each one hinges on several teams in front of the Hurricanes losing in order for Miami to climb the rankings.
Although the odds are slim, there is still hope, but one thing remains certain: There is absolutely no room left for error. With two games left to play on their schedule, the ‘Canes need to finish strong with convincing wins against Virginia Tech and Pitt on the road. If they can’t win out down the stretch, nothing else will matter, and they will, without question, be knocked out of playoff contention.
Ever since Miami’s devastating loss in Dallas, the team has undergone a dramatic turnaround. Over the last two weeks, UM blew out Syracuse and NC State by an combined score of 79-17. Assuming it can continue this trend and finish out the season going 4-0, here is a comprehensive look at the two routes that would lead to Miami playing in the college football postseason.
Miami Secures An At-Large Bid
Before diving into the laundry list of results UM needs to swing in its favor, it’s important to remember that by going down this path, Miami’s fate would ultimately rest in the hands of the CFP voting committee. No matter how much we dissect every possibility and scrutinize every detail, Miami’s chances at a playoff spot all boil down to the subjective judgement of a so-called group of experts consisting of former coaches, athletic directors, and longtime college football figures. All of the scenarios outlined below would certainly help Miami’s case in the eyes of the committee, but nothing is guaranteed.
That being said, here is the full roadmap to how the Hurricanes can possibly clinch their spot in the College Football Playoff via an at-large selection.
Without lifting their conference title, the ‘Canes would essentially need to jump into the top 10 of the rankings, as it appears the No. 11 and 12 seeds will be reserved for the ACC champions and the best team from outside the Power 4 conferences. As of Nov. 18, the Hurricanes are ranked 13th in the college football playoffs, jumping Vanderbilt and are currently behind Utah, BYU, and Alabama.
To get to the No. 10 spot, in addition to winning the rest of its remaining games, Miami ideally needs the teams ranked ahead of them with the same record to lose before the postseason begins.
At the moment, the schools that are realistically competing with the Hurricanes for a committee-selected bid are USC, Vanderbilt, Utah, BYU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Notre Dame.
USC faces a pivotal Big Ten matchup at Oregon on Saturday. Although the Trojans are currently ranked two spots behind Miami, a win would keep them at just two losses and significantly strengthen their case to make the College Football Playoff, thanks to the quality of the victory and the boost it would give their résumé. Oregon needs to win as the favorites in order to prevent USC from gaining any major playoff buzz.
Vanderbilt also needs to lose to boost Miami’s odds. Looking at its schedule, the most likely game it could drop comes on the last week of its regular season schedule, when the Commodores travel to Knoxville and a hostile Neyland Stadium to square off against No. 20 Tennessee. Assuming the Commodores beat Kentucky this weekend, a defeat to the Volunteers on Nov. 29 would push them down to 9-3, giving the Hurricanes a firm advantage in the playoff hunt if they can finish at 10-2.
This is where it gets tricky for UM. The remaining five teams that would still be in the mix with Miami do not have an upcoming contest they are projected to lose, meaning the Hurricanes must rely on several upsets to have a viable chance.
Utah and BYU are the two frontrunners for an at-large bid from the Big 12 Conference. Brigham Young holds the edge over its in-state rivals with a head-to-head win and a better record, standing at 9-1, while the Utes are one game behind at 8-2.
The last formidable opponent left for BYU is Cincinnati this Saturday on the road at 8 p.m. While a loss would leave the Cougars with the same record as the Hurricanes, the committee would be expected to give the nod to Miami because of its equal performance against a tougher strength of schedule.
However, if the Cougars manage to win the rest of the way, their next loss probably wouldn’t come until the Big 12 Championship Game, which will almost certainly pit them against Texas Tech. At that point, in the event that they fall to the Red Raiders in convincing fashion for the second time this season, ‘Canes fans would only be able to hope that the selection committee punishes them for it.
Meanwhile, barring any unforeseen chaos, Utah is slated to sit at the No. 12 spot for the rest of the season. Despite entering as the overwhelming favorites in both, the Utes need to drop one of their next two games – either at home against Kansas State this week or on the road at Kansas next week – for Miami to pass them. If not, the decision would come down to a true vote, and although both teams would enter the discussion at 10–2 with Miami holding the stronger résumé, Utah still sits higher in the current rankings.
If the College Football Playoff began today, the Oklahoma Sooners would be safely in. After a stunning road upset over No. 4 Alabama last weekend, OU sits at No. 8 controls its own destiny and is firmly in the driver’s seat for a postseason berth, with a playoff spot being theirs to lose. If Oklahoma doesn’t suffer a defeat at home to Missouri or LSU between now and Nov. 29, it will be a shoo-in for a top-10 seed in the final bracket.
After suffering a shocking loss to Oklahoma at home on Saturday, No. 10 Alabama’s standing as a playoff team isn’t set in stone. The Crimson Tide are favored in its final two games of the season, but crazier things have happened.
Alabama ends the season on the road in an Iron Bowl matchup against its arch rival Auburn, a team that would love nothing more than to take down its in-state rivals to prevent it from making the playoffs. If the Crimson Tide fall to the Tigers, the chances Miami can make the playoffs increases significantly.
Lastly, and most controversially, is Notre Dame – the final team standing in the way of Miami and a trip to the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes and the Fighting Irish are even on record, each with eight wins and two losses. For UM, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Notre Dame not to reach 10-2 at the end of November.
The Irish’s last two opponents are Syracuse and Stanford, who together have a combined record of 6-14 and rank 17th and 14th respectively in the ACC. What ‘Canes fans should instead be hoping for is to climb within three spots of Notre Dame within the next two weeks, in which case, according to the CFP committee, they would then be able to factor in Miami’s head-to-head victory in the first week of the season. This would give the Hurricanes the best shot at claiming a place in the College Football Playoff over the infamously self-titled “Catholics” from the Midwest.
Miami Automatically Qualifies by Winning the ACC
As for the ACC path, it is very different for Miami as it is not up to the decision of a committee. Coming into Week 12 of the College Football season, Miami came into the week with just a 4% chance of making it to the ACC championship game.
As it stands, the Hurricanes have a better chance of making the College Football Playoffs through an at-large bid, but they are still alive in the ACC championship race.
Following losses from Duke and Louisville, Miami sits at No. 5 in the ACC, sitting behind Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU.
With all of this happening, Miami’s percentage has grown to a 8% chance of making it to the championship game. As the format of the conference championship allows the two best teams making it, the Hurricanes would need to be the second team in.
For this to happen, they obviously would need to win out, as well as two of the three scenarios to happen:
Georgia Tech to lose this week to Pitt, Virginia to lose next week to Virginia Tech, or SMU to lose to both Louisville and Cal. Due to Miami playing Pitt, that would take care of them.
There is one other scenario that could involve a four-way tiebreaker that gives the edge to the Hurricanes and Cavaliers to make the ACC Championship game.
This involves Georgia Tech losing to Pitt this week, Virginia losing to Virginia Tech next week, SMU losing one of its next two games, and Duke losing one of its two last games. This would pave the way for Virginia to claim the top spot in the ACC and Miami to get the second spot by way of a four-way tiebreaker with Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU that Miami holds.
If all of that happens, Miami will be playing in the ACC championship game for the second time ever, and the first time since 2017.
Miami has to handle its own business, as the Hurricanes head north for a matchup against rival Virginia Tech. Saturday’s matchup at Lane Stadium is set for noon and will air on ESPN.
