After jumping up to 15th in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, the Miami Hurricanes (7-2, 3-2 ACC) are going to need to continue to impress the committee down the final stretch.
Their opponent on senior night Saturday, the NC State Wolfpack (5-4, 2-3 ACC), have already upset one top tier ACC team and the Hurricanes need to be on alert to avoid being their second.
In his press conference Monday, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal told reporters how good this Wolfpack team has been as of late.
“They understand that they have a great team coming in here,” Cristobal said. “Maybe the hottest offensive team and maybe one of the most physical defenses that we have faced.”
More than ever, this Miami offense is going to need to be consistent and start fast, something they’ve had trouble with over this recent stretch of games. While Louisville had a top tier pass defense that forced four turnovers from Miami, in its most recent games UM has had trouble exploiting the weaknesses of opposing teams.
In their last three games, the Hurricanes have faced three bottom tier pass defenses and struggled to capitalize on all three. The Mustangs allow an average of 303 passing yards per game and despite a strong start, finished with 274 passing yards and elected not throw downfield.
Even in its last two blowout matchups, Miami’s offense has started off slow. Despite winning by a combined 60 points against the Cardinal and the Orange, most of those came in the second half. In each game, Miami’s offense scored just seven points in the first half.
The Hurricanes are likely to be without some of their important weapons with wide receiver CJ Daniels and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. potentially out once again. However, against the Orange, the Hurricanes showed that they are confident in their depth in those areas with freshmen stepping into roles to make big plays. True freshmen running back Girard Pringle Jr. and wide receiver Daylyn Upshaw both made big plays and their execution and practice habits both stood out to Cristobal.
“Daylyn Upshaw would take four reps for the scout team,” Cristobal said. “He’d sprint over to the other field and take four reps with the offense, sprint back and do the same. And so did Gerard Pringle. They were really paying attention to detail.”
With the injuries on this offense, Cristobal seems confident in the ability of his younger playmakers to step up when their name is called.
NC State has struggled to stop the run but has struggled against the pass especially in their last two games. Allowing 292 yards through the air this season, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 400 yards in both of the last two games. Teams are averaging 30 points against this Wolfpack defense and Miami can exploit a secondary that due to injuries has had to move guys around and give younger players increased opportunities.
The Wolfpack especially struggled against crossers and mesh patterns against Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1 ACC) , something receivers like Malachi Toney and Keelan Marrion can exploit. With teams able to throw with ease against NC State, running backs haven’t had too much individual success.
Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King went over 100 yards but aside for that, the Wolfpack hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Virginia Tech. Teams are averaging just over four yards per carry, an area Miami can exploit.
However, the NC State struggling passing defense is definitely where the Hurricanes should attack. Turnovers also shouldn’t be too much of a worry with the secondary only having six interceptions and eight total turnovers on the year.
The Hurricanes cannot start slow against this Wolfpack offense led by breakout sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey. The 6-foot-6-inch second year starter out of Chaminade High School in Hollywood, Fla. has completed 70% of his passes, thrown for 19 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and rushed for another four touchdowns on the ground.
In their win against Georgia Tech at the beginning of November he dominated, with 374 total yards and three touchdowns. His go-to target has been wide receiver Terrell Anderson, who has been a big play machine. In five of the Wolfpack’s games this year, he’s had a catch of 30 yards or more.
With just 28 receptions on the year, he has gone for 527 yards averaging almost 19 yards per reception. OJ Frederique’s health is still a question mark but this Hurricanes secondary has held together. Keionte Scott has flown around and has stolen the show but, Damari Brown has quietly also been a lockdown corner leading ACC defensive backs with a 33% forced incompletion percentage. This Hurricanes secondary is more than up for the challenge.
The Hurricanes are going to need to minimize the explosive passing plays from this NC State passing offense and keep Bailey contained and that is going to need to be the work of this Hurricanes pass rush. Bailey has 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions when kept clean as he has been on 70% of his drop backs, under pressure Bailey has thrown all of his seven interceptions.
According to PFF, Bailey holds the ball longer than most power four quarterbacks at 45th of 68. This is an area of attack for Miami’s elite pass rush anchored by Rueben Bain Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor. Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman is well aware of that.
“We got to affect the quarterback. We got to hit him. We got to try to hit him as much as we can early in the game.” Hetherman said in his Monday press conference.
Bailey is a good scrambler but is more likely to go up the middle rather than outside of the pocket. The Hurricanes will need to maintain discipline in their rush lanes and keep Bailey from stepping up and finding guys downfield or taking off.
Miami’s interior defensive lineman such as Justin Scott and David Blay are going to be huge in collapsing the pocket from the inside and putting the pressure on Bailey. If Miami is able to get some early hits onto him, it could rattle and throw off this NC State passing game.
This Wolfpack offense is not only limited to the air, with a strong running game as well. While they don’t run it too often with just 289 rushing attempts on the year (Miami has 324), NC State averages five yards per carry and have some big play threats on the ground as well.
Lead rusher junior Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers averages almost seven yards per carry and has rushed for 825 yards and six touchdowns on the year leading the ACC. He bounces off tacklers with a great combination of speed, vision, and elusiveness.
NC State runs a lot on the inside and Smothers is often able to make one guy miss in the hole and then break off a long run. The Hurricanes linebackers are going to need to fight around pulling guards and rally to tackle and prevent Smothers from taking off. Despite the flash that this team has, coach Cristobal talked about how physical the NC State offense has been as well.
“It was really important for our edge guys to watch today and see how physical they are running the power counter.”
There’s a chance that the Hurricanes don’t see Smothers who missed the Georgia Tech game but, in his stead Duke Scott has filled in more than adequately. Against Georgia Tech, Scott became the first freshman running back to top 100 yards with 196 yards and a touchdown.
Scott is more of a big bruising back but, as he showed against Georgia Tech can make one cut and go as he did with a big 69-yard rush. The Hurricanes regardless are going to need to play fast and physical defensive football and are going to be really tested against this explosive offense and could let up their first 30 point game of the year.
If that happens Miami will need its offense to start out hot and give the defense the leeway to make some mistakes and let up some points. With the slow starts offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson seems to be trying to get the offense to play looser.
“I mean I think that’s been the goal, the recent goal for us,” Dawson said. “I felt good about calling them [trick plays] was because I want our guys to have fun and you know we have to play loose.”
This Miami offense has come out sluggish, playing too tight and restricting themselves. Whether it’s trick plays or taking shots down field Miami needs to come out firing against NC State and get off to a hot start. While hopes for the playoff require a lot of help from outside Cristobal and the ‘Canes need to take everything one step at a time. And according to the leading man the focus is just that.
“It’s all on us and about us and we have some great opportunities coming up and from there everything else does take care of itself,” Cristobal said.
The Hurricanes need to control what they can control but they need it all to come together and more than ever this week.
Saturday’s kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. and will air on ESPN. It will be the Hurricanes last home game of the regular season.
